Presenter: Jamel Saadaoui
Affiliation: University Paris 8, Dionysian Economics Lab (LED).
VIMM Lab Seminar
Date: September 9, 2025.
Time: 15:00 Israel Time.
Slides: Dynamic Local Projections with Stata.
Data and Stata Codes: GitHub.
Syllabus: This learning seminar will actively engage participants with practical applications and coding exercises using Stata, focusing on two recent empirical studies at the frontier of macroeconomic research: Ginn & Saadaoui (2025) on monetary policy responses to geopolitical shocks and Aizenman et al. (2024) on real exchange rates and international reserves in an era of deepening financial integration.
Using recent panel econometric methods and practical Stata workflows, participants will:
- Explore how geopolitical risk events—such as conflicts, diplomatic tensions, or terrorism—trigger significant and often preemptive monetary policy responses, especially in emerging and frontier economies.
- Analyze how central banks in unstable environments employ interest rate changes and, when possible, unconventional tools to counteract effects on inflation, capital flows, and exchange rates.
- Apply local projections and impulse response functions in Stata to trace the dynamics of shocks, learning how policy reactions depend on central bank credibility and institutional strength.
This highlights the usefulness of robust econometric modeling—particularly local projection techniques—for uncovering causal mechanisms in high-volatility settings.
Attendees will leave equipped with practical tools and experience in implementing advanced econometric techniques, ready to apply these methods to real-world macroeconomic problems in an era of heightened global risk.
References
Aizenman, J., Ho, S. H., Huynh, L. D. T., Saadaoui, J., & Uddin, G. S. (2024). Real exchange rate and international reserves in the era of financial integration. Journal of International Money and Finance, 141, 103014.
Ginn, W., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). Monetary policy reaction to geopolitical risks in unstable environments. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 29, e90.
Inoue, A., Rossi, B., & Wang, Y. (2024). Local projections in unstable environments. Journal of Econometrics, 244(2), 105726.
Jordà, Ò., & Taylor, A. M. (2025). Local projections. Journal of Economic Literature, 63(1), 59-110.