Survey of Professional Forecasters

25.02.2025: Daniela Puzzello – Simulating the survey of professional forecasters

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Presenter: Daniela Puzzello Affiliation: Indiana University, Department of Economics. Paper: Simulating the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Date: February 25, 2025. Time: 13:00 GMT (15:00 Israel Time) Abstract: We simulate economic forecasts of professional forecasters using large language models (LLMs). We construct synthetic forecaster personas using a unique hand-gathered dataset of participant characteristics from the Survey … Read more

10.01.2023: Tatevik Sekhposyan – Understanding the sources of macroeconomic uncertainty

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Presenter: Tatevik Sekhposyan Affiliation: Texas A&M University, Department of Economics Paper: Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty Date: January 10, 2023 Time: 13:00 GMT (15:00 Israel Time) Abstract: We propose to decompose uncertainty into several components, such as uncertainty about the probability distribution generating the data (broadly speaking, model-misspecification) and uncertainty about the odds of … Read more